Scoping Models
The models of interest for comparison have been developed for "scoping" reasons. In Webster's dictionary, "scope" is defined as "the range of one's awareness, thoughts, or actions"; "space or opportunity to function"; "area covered by a given activity or subject". Scoping refers to the first step in a three-step modeling process where the goal is to develop a high generality, low resolution scoping and consensus building model. This step requires a broad representation of all the stakeholder groups affected by the problem. The scope of the participants is widened by new ways of thinking about a problem. This first stage scoping model can be used to answer preliminary questions about the dynamics of the system. The areas of sensitivity, uncertainty, and the gaps in information become clear. The research agenda for the second stage and the management agenda for the third stage are based on the first "scoping" step.

Figure 1. Degree of understanding vs. Degree of consensus

The added value of mediated computer modeling versus a mediated discussion without modeling is illustrated in Figure 1. A distinction is made between "consensus among stakeholders" and "understanding of the system dynamics". Consensus among stakeholders may presumably be achieved by some effective form of interaction and discussion among stakeholders. But consensus among stakeholders does not necessarily mean that the shared understanding of how the system works has improved. The consensus may be based on wishful thinking. For example, groups may achieve consensus on goals and visions for the system or on the relative risks of various activities, but they may not fully appreciate the dynamic links between the variables. While envisioning exercises such as "Future Search" can be very empowering, they are not geared toward improvement of the shared level of understanding of the system dynamics involved. Using computer modeling an important missing component about the system dynamics is added. Even though the resulting model may be less elaborate and accurate than if it were constructed by "experts", its important advantage is that it generates stakeholder consensus about system dynamics, which greatly improves the prospects for implementation of the model's results.

(Back to Models) (Back to Businesses)